Comparing Cricket Betting Odds: Finding The Best Value
It’s not possible to have a highly profitable cricket betting career without being able to find value. The concept of value betting is commonly discussed in betting circles, with punters being advised to use value bets to beat the bookmaker. So, then, what exactly is a value bet?
Value Betting
A value bet is a bet where the sportsbook’s estimation of the likelihood of an event occurring is lower than the actual probability. In this case, the possibility of that event happening is much higher than what the bookmaker thinks, and the sharper punter happens to know this. Now since bookmakers offer high odds for unlikely outcomes and lower odds for high-probability outcomes, the price shown for the event occurring is much more attractive than should generally be the case. When the punter places such a wager, it is called a value bet.
The Coin Toss Value Bet
There’s no better illustration of value betting than the classic coin toss scenario. When an average coin is flipped in the air, there are only two possible landing outcomes: Heads or Tails. This is a proposition bet offered in sports betting for matches where a coin is tossed at the beginning to determine which side has the right to start play. Each outcome - whether Heads or Tails - has an exactly 50% chance of occurring each time. Ideally, bookmakers should offer even odds (2.00 in decimal) since the probability is exactly half. Is that what happens, though? The answer is no. The bookies will typically offer odds of 1.90 for one of the options, say Heads, and 2.10 for the other option (Tails).
Given that both outcomes are equally likely to happen, which result should a good punter back? The answer is Tails at 2.10. That’s the perfect example of a value bet because the punter stands to gain more than money for predicting something that has an even chance of happening.
Finding Best Value Bets in Indian Cricket
India is big on cricket, and the Indian Premier League - which happens to be one of the best in the world - offers wonderful betting opportunities. For a punter to turn their cricket betting hobby into a profitable activity, they need to first grasp how betting odds work. These betting prices, as posted by bookmakers, reflect how probable or improbable the bookie thinks specific outcomes are. Therefore, they are simply opinions. In the coin-toss example above, the bookmaker thinks that Heads is a more likely outcome than Tails, hence the 1.90 vs. 2.10 pricing. These opinions can prove correct or false in the long run, but the key thing to remember is that nobody can make 100% accurate sports predictions all the time - neither the punter nor the bookie. With that in mind, there are three ways to find the best value in cricket betting:
Do your research. Having more data and stats than the bookmaker means that a punter can see things that the bookie can’t, and this puts the punter in a position to make a high-quality prediction at a reasonable price.
Betting odds comparison. Bookmakers offer different odds for various bets, and sometimes they can have very different opinions. Use odds comparison tools to find the bookmakers with the best (highest) odds for your bet, or compare manually if you can’t afford a premium tool.
Lucrative promotions and offers. Sometimes bookmakers offer higher-than-usual odds as part of certain promotions - especially for big matches. Those high odds are opportunities for value bets since the probability is far lower than the prices posted.
