How to Predict Upsets: Spotting Value in Underdog Bets

Written by, Marko Vrakela Thu 13 Mar

How to Predict Upsets: Spotting Value in Underdog Bets

One of the most exciting aspects of sports betting is predicting upsets—when an underdog defies the odds and emerges victorious. While many bettors shy away from backing underdogs, smart bettors know that underdog bets often hold hidden value. If you can spot these opportunities, you can boost your long-term profitability. Here’s how you can identify potential upsets and make smarter underdog bets.

Why Betting on Underdogs Can Be Profitable

1. Bookmakers Set Public-Friendly Odds

   • Oddsmakers adjust lines based on public sentiment, often overvaluing favorites.

   • This creates value in backing underdogs at higher odds than their true probability.

2. Higher Payouts

   • Betting on underdogs offers a better return on investment compared to favorites.

   • You don’t need to win as often to remain profitable.

3. Market Inefficiencies

   • Bookmakers are not always accurate, and hidden factors can swing a game in favor of the underdog.

Key Factors to Identify Potential Upsets

1. Analyze Team/Player Form & Momentum

• A struggling favorite vs. an underdog on a winning streak presents an upset opportunity.

• Look for teams/players who have improved in recent games despite their underdog status.

2. Injuries & Suspensions

• A key injury to a star player can dramatically shift the balance in favor of an underdog.

• Check recent team news for unexpected absences.

3. Head-to-Head Records

• Some teams or players consistently perform well against specific opponents, despite their underdog status.

• Psychological or tactical advantages can lead to surprises.

4. Home vs. Away Performance

• Home-field advantage plays a crucial role in many sports.

• Some teams perform significantly better in front of their home crowd, increasing their upset potential.

5. Betting Line Movement

• If odds for an underdog start to shorten, it often means sharp bettors are backing them.

• Monitoring line movement can reveal where professional money is going.

6. Overconfidence in Favorites

• Heavy favorites sometimes underestimate weaker teams, leading to unexpected losses.

• This is common in league play when top teams face struggling opponents.

Strategies for Betting on Underdogs

1. Look for Small Margins

   • Instead of betting on extreme long shots, find underdogs with reasonable chances based on data.

2. Consider Handicaps & Alternative Markets

   • Betting on an underdog with a spread (+1.5 goals in soccer, +7 points in football) can provide a safety net.

3. Diversify Your Bets

   • Spread your bets across multiple underdogs instead of relying on one major upset.

4. Avoid Emotional Betting

   • Backing an underdog should be based on logic and stats, not personal bias.

5. Track & Adjust

   • Keep a record of your underdog bets to refine your strategy over time.

Final Thoughts

Upset predictions require patience, research, and a willingness to go against the crowd. By identifying key factors such as team form, injuries, historical trends, and line movements, you can find hidden value in underdog bets. While not every upset will come through, consistently spotting value in underdogs can lead to long-term profitability in sports betting.