Mitigating The Risks Involved In Cup Football Betting
Each match carries more risk than in the league where managers are content to play for a draw. A cup football betting replay, however, is another match to fit into an already crowded calendar and few managers are happy with this scenario; winning is all.
A look at the weekend’s FA Cup third round ties underlines the difficulties the bettor faced.
Arsenal hadn’t lost an FA Cup third round tie in 21 years, even with their policy of rotating their side heavily. Not playing together regularly meant the Gunners gave a sub-par performance, and Forest took full advantage to the extent that not even Expected Goals (xG) predicted.
The 4 – 2 win genuine was a surprise result in a match widely-regarded as an ‘away banker.’
The same couldn’t be said of Newport County’s win over Leeds United. Statistics pointed to an away victory, but not recent history. Leeds habit of making wholesale changes to their side backfired in last season’s FA Cup when Sutton United knocked them out of the competition. The warning signs were there even if the statistics told a different story.
More likely was Aston Villa’s defeat at home to Peterborough United. The Posh have lost just two of their last ten away games, scoring three in three of the previous four games. Steve Bruce’s decision to rotate his side led to a predictable result.
How can the bettor protect himself against the shock result, or at least mitigate the risk?
The most obvious is reading the team news. Look at the list of injured but also players rated as doubtful. That list will give a good indication of the strength of the team a manager is likely to field. Key players as ‘doubts’ are unlikely to play.
Upcoming games
Key fixtures in the league or European competition – also highlight the likelihood of a changed side. The bigger the fixtures in the next week, the more chance of rotation.
When it comes to the bets themselves, steering clear of certain types of bets will mitigate the risk of losses.
Winner Bets
Many fancy a straightforward home or away win bet. However, the Double Chance bet lowers the risk of losing money. The odds may not be as attractive as an outright winner, but the chances of winning increase.
Equally, for a game where a team is expected to win but face a team known to be difficult to beat, Draw No Bet offers an insurance bet. The risk of a surprise isn’t mitigated, but two options covered is better than one. The trade-off comes with the odds.
Total Goals Bets
Instead of options for Total Home Goals or Total Away Goals, look instead at the Total Goals. At both Forest and Newport, Total Away Goals bets of Over 2.5 goal would be losers. Put those in as Total Goals bet and both win.
With cup football betting featuring highly in fixture lists in the second half of the season, simple changes to strategy can offer a better chance of winning. Add SportsPrediction to your bookmark and read more of SportsPrediction betting guide articles
